Bank Roll Requirements When to increase bets Variance PreBetting vs. Toteboard
Our philosophy is that the difference between gambling and investing has to do with the expected value of each time a wager is made (and money risked). What this means is that if you risk money on a positive expectation you are investing; and vice versa, if you risk money on a proven negative expectation you are gambling.
The casino game Blackjack, among every other game, is mathematically proven to put the player at a negative expectation on each hand. Thus, every time a chip is risked the player is gambling; on the other hand, brokers can do research and analysis and make educated predictions on what stocks will do and are often right enough to counter when they are off. We consider ourselves similar to brokers, in that we do research and analysis that is proven (over the long run) to provide a positive expectation on every wager (despite short term variance).
Simply put, yes there are. However, anyone selling a handicapping system, picks, or any other form of handicapping paraphernalia, that give multiple potential win horses for every race is selling a scam. At most, in our researched opinion, true overlays can only be found once or twice a day per track (on average). What does this mean? If your betting, on average, more than 2 horses per track per day you indeed would be gambling on a large portion of your wagers, and just as 95-97% of horse handicappers, prove yourself to be a long-term losing player.
I fell into this overlay fallacy myself, betting a system and getting a ton of bets while watching the tote board waiting for them to be “overlays.” Yet, I often found myself, after hitting a 90 dollar horse, making just enough on that win to break even for the day! Any system that requires a 45/1 to break even on your day’s wagers is in fact a very flawed system.
Briefly stated, in our era of information and Internet, the live track is becoming more and more of a hassle than its worth for handicapping and wagering on horses. Unless you live very close to a track, and they offer maximum tracks possible, you will find that Internet wagering is by far the best way to go. For example, in my own situation, the closest simulcast track is 1 hour away, they don’t offer all the tracks that I handicap, and I have to use less then par machines or tellers to place my day’s wagers. However, online, I have just about every tack imaginable at my finger tips. I don’t have to spend 25 dollars a day in gas plus 2 hours of driving time. I can use their online wagering pad that is incredibly simple, which induces accuracy of bets, and be done for the day in a matter of 5 minutes.
Where to Go
There are multiple sites that can be found. Some of the off shore sports books offer discounted take out in the pools, resulting in higher ROI’s, and rebates. www.BodogLife.com is a good offshore book offering most major tracks and giving small rebate on all tickets. For U.S. legal horse sites YouBet, BrisBet, and TsnBet are by far the best. One thing to keep in mind when deciding where to bet is that when you bet with the U.S. sites the money goes into the actual pools reducing your overall odds. When you place a bet with an offshore site, the money does not go into the U.S. pools and will not affect your overall odds on the horse.
When to Bet
Most Day time tracks are open for betting and have scratches in between 12:00-1:00 Eastern. Most offshore books open their pools for betting much earlier than this. Using our system, and pre-betting online, you can easily make your daily investments in 5-10 minutes a day.
Bank Roll Requirements
Starting bank roll is obviously investor dependent and does not really matter, since there isn’t a high minimum bet (just $2). However, there are very specific bank roll requirements based on how much you wish to bet. Using our betting method, which has been tested to be most beneficial to our win% and ROI, someone with a starting bank roll of $1,000 would be required to bet no more than 7 dollars to win on each horse (to start). Obviously, if you have more money you can start out with a higher bet. Ideally, to start out making average money, you need a $1,500 BR to start out with a flat bet of $10 on each horse. Further, your investing disposition also will influence the plan. We suggest, as an average progression, that you have a 150 bet bank roll. In other words, as mentioned above, if you want to start out betting $10 on each horse you will need a $1,500 roll. In our research over the years, using our systems, we have found that having at least 150 bets will allow for win/loss variance to take place with a very low chance of busting your bank roll. If you want to be more secure, obviously, you could jump it up to 200, 250, etc…You will be more secure but on the converse it will slow the progression of your bank roll and profits (you have to weigh what’s most important).
Within our betting plan we have what we call the 150 bet daily progression. This means that everyday your bank roll is reassessed and you increase your bet according to the 150 bet rule. Meaning, if you started with $1,500 on day 1 and bet 10 dollars making a profit of $200 that day, the next day you would be operating off a $1,700 BR. Thus, you would then take 1700/150 which would progress you to an $11 bet. You would do this each day, except when you drop below your original bank roll of $1,500, never decreasing below a $10 bet. Since our systems are highly profitable this aids dramatically in a safe but steady increase of bank roll. There will, however, have to be a point that you set as your max bet. For example, if you reached a BR allowing you to bet $50, and didn’t want to bet more, you could then cap your bet at $50 and allow your BR to continue to grow exceeding the 150 bet rule for an added long term security.
Let me begin by saying that variance sucks. Anyone who says they win every day, every week, or at every track is full of crap. It is possible to have great winning streaks, but the good old losing streak must come (despite your positive ROI and win%).
We at HtandicappingAnalysis.com are not ashamed, or afraid, to tell you the truth: Expect to have losing streaks; but, we can also tell you that despite those losing streaks you can still turn tremendous profit over the coarse of a year. The most important thing is to not let the losing streaks emotionally affect your decision process. It is best to have a system you follow to avoid letting the losing streaks make you do things you normally wouldn't do.
PreBetting vs. Toteboard
When we discuss pre-betting it means that all your picks for a particular day could be bet once the track pools open (usually around Noon (eastern) and you are done for the Day! Toteboard, on the other hand, would be taking the same picks and betting them only when they go off at a certain actual odds (which we would give you). This will usually increases overall ROI because you can bet horses with only optimum odds, but lowers win% slightly; further, it is highly time consuming as you have to watch the board throughout the day when your races to bet come up. Another downside to toteboard watching is that it is very easy to make mistakes. You may miss bets, bet the wrong horse, or a host of other things could take place as you may get distracted by the t.v., your kids, etc… Of course the downside to pre-betting is that you will end up making wagers when they are not at optimum odds reducing overall ROI. But, overall, I have found that the pre-betting is much more user friendly . The fact of the matter is prebetting is the best if you can devise a system to be profitable for pre-betting, your investments will only take 5-10 minutes of your time each day and reduce overall stress and mistakes.